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Author: Allison Karavos

Top Mortgage Lending Trends in the UK and Europe

Top Mortgage Lending Trends in the UK and Europe: Smarter Decisioning for a Changing Market

Navigating evolving market conditions, affordability challenges, and AI-driven risk management

The UK mortgage market is poised for a notable rebound in the coming year, with mortgage lending growth projected to double compared to 2023, according to EY. While this signals renewed optimism, lenders are still navigating complex challenges — rising interest rates, affordability constraints, evolving regulatory pressures, and shifting borrower expectations.

Across Europe, mortgage markets are experiencing varying levels of volatility. Some countries, like Germany and the Netherlands, are facing demand fluctuations due to interest rate adjustments, while others, such as France and Spain, are seeing pockets of resilience amid broader economic uncertainty.

So, how can lenders capitalize on growth while managing risk? By embracing advanced credit and fraud risk decisioning, leveraging alternative data, and integrating AI-driven automation, mortgage providers can ensure they remain competitive in a rapidly changing landscape. Here’s what you need to know.

1. Mortgage Market Rebound: Will Growth Be Sustainable?

After recent turbulence, the UK mortgage market is showing early signs of recovery. The latest data from EY forecasts that net mortgage lending will grow from £11bn in 2023 to £22bn — a significant shift fueled by economic stabilization and a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes. However, growth comes with some challenges:

  • Interest rates remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels, affecting affordability.
  • Consumer confidence is still fragile, with borrowers cautious about long-term financial commitments.
  • Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) pushing for fair lending practices and enhanced risk oversight.
Across Europe, trends vary widely:
  • Germany is experiencing weaker housing demand due to tightening credit conditions.
  • France is navigating a slowdown in new mortgage approvals amid regulatory adjustments.
  • Spain and Portugal are seeing a rise in international buyers, stabilizing demand despite domestic affordability challenges.
What do you need to do? To thrive in this landscape, mortgage providers must improve risk assessment capabilities and adopt more dynamic credit and fraud risk decisioning frameworks that can adjust to market shifts in real time.
2. The Affordability Dilemma: Why Traditional Credit Scoring Isn’t Enough
Affordability remains one of the biggest challenges in the UK mortgage market. While lending volumes are set to increase, many borrowers are still struggling with:
  • High living costs and wage stagnation, which impact disposable income.
  • Stringent mortgage stress tests, making it harder for first-time buyers to qualify.
  • Variable rate mortgages, which are exposing homeowners to fluctuating monthly payments.
Traditional credit scoring models (which are heavily reliant on credit history and debt-to-income ratios) often fail to provide a full picture of a borrower’s financial health. That’s why leading lenders are increasingly turning to alternative data like the following to refine their risk assessments:
  • Open banking data: Real-time income and spending patterns can help assess affordability more accurately.
  • Rental payment history: Demonstrates financial discipline, especially for first-time buyers.
  • Utility and telecom payments: Provides additional insights into payment behaviors and financial stability.

By integrating AI-powered risk decisioning, you can analyze alternative data at scale, leading to more inclusive lending decisions and better default risk prediction.

What do you need to do? Move beyond traditional credit scores by adopting AI-driven analytics and alternative data sources to expand lending opportunities without increasing risk.

3. AI and Automation: The Future of Mortgage Decisioning

With mortgage competition increasing and regulatory expectations rising, you can no longer afford slow, manual credit decisioning processes. AI and automation are becoming essential tools for enhancing speed, accuracy, and compliance.

AI is transforming mortgage lending with:

  • Instant Decisioning – AI models process vast amounts of data in real time, reducing approval times from weeks to minutes.
  • Advanced Fraud Detection – AI-powered anomaly detection helps identify fraudulent applications before loans are approved.
  • Improved Regulatory Compliance – AI ensures fair lending practices by providing explainable decisioning frameworks and reducing bias.

But what’s the competitive advantage to AI Decisioning?

  • Higher Approval Rates: More borrowers qualify for mortgages through personalized risk assessment.
  • Reduced Risk Exposure: Predictive analytics detect high-risk applicants before issues arise.
  • Operational Efficiency: Automating credit checks and underwriting reduces costs and processing times.
What do you need to do? Future-proof your mortgage operations by implementing AI-driven decisioning platforms that enhance efficiency while maintaining compliance with FCA and EU regulatory guidelines.
Building a Smarter Mortgage Lending Strategy

With UK mortgage lending growth set to double and European markets shifting, mortgage providers must evolve their decisioning strategies to remain competitive.

By embracing AI, alternative data, and automated decisioning, you can:

  • Expand access to credit while minimizing default risk.
  • Deliver faster, more seamless customer experiences.
  • Ensure compliance with evolving regulatory standards.

As the mortgage landscape continues to change, the lenders that invest in innovation today will be the market leaders of tomorrow.

Ready to future-proof your mortgage lending strategy? Discover how AI-driven decisioning can help you boost approvals, manage risk, and streamline compliance.

Shape the future of your mortgage strategy with AI.

Learn More

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EVENT: Provenir Customer Advisory Board Meeting

Event

Provenir Customer Advisory Board Meeting

May 13-14, 2025
Kansas City, MO – USA

Join us for an exclusive gathering of industry leaders and valued customers to collaborate, share insights, and shape the future of our partnership. Stay tuned—more details and a formal invitation to follow soon!

We look forward to seeing you in Kansas City!

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NEWS: AI Risk Decisioning Leader Provenir to Sponsor Financial Services Events

AI Risk Decisioning Leader Provenir to Sponsor Upcoming Banking and Financial Services Events

Parsippany, NJ – February 19, 2025 – Provenir, a global leader in AI risk decisioning software, today announced its participation and sponsorship of three upcoming banking and fintech events focusing on key topics, including digital banking, banking trends, and policy and regulatory issues.

The events provide Provenir an opportunity to meet with financial services leaders to better understand the challenges they face amidst rising consumer debt, evolving digital banking platforms, and fraud mitigation. According to a recent survey by Provenir, nearly half of all financial services executives are struggling with managing credit risk and detecting and preventing fraud.

Details of the events include:

future digital finance connectFuture Digital Finance Connect 2025

Future Digital Finance Connect 2025
(Feb. 24-25, New Orleans)
The inaugural Future Digital Finance Connect is an exclusive, invitation-only gathering for senior digital and innovation leaders from top big banks, community banks, credit unions, credit cards and insurers. Provenir is a sponsor.

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Fintech Meetup
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Fintech Meetup is the largest and most productive event for networking in the industry, bringing together fintech leaders to network, collaborate, and discuss industry issues. Provenir is a bronze sponsor and will be located at stand #2326.

cba liveCBA Live 2025

CBA Live 2025
(March 17-19, Orlando)
At CBA LIVE, retail banking professionals come to explore regulatory and policy issues, learn new trends, and share ideas that will improve their business strategies and better serve their customers. Provenir is a silver sponsor.

Provenir’s AI Decisioning Platform brings together the power of decisioning, data, and decision intelligence to drive smarter decisions. This unique offering gives organizations the ability to power decisioning innovation across the full customer lifecycle, driving improvements in the customer experience, best-in-class fraud prevention, access to financial services, business agility, and more.
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Exclusive Event: Smarter Strategies for Card Issuers

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Smarter Strategies for Card Issuers:
How to Navigate Risk, Fraud, and Portfolio Performance with Advanced Analytics

Join us live in Wilmington for cocktails and conversation

March 26th, 4:30 – 6:30pm
Tonic Seafood & Steak, Wilmington, DE

Join us for an exclusive Cocktail Hour & Discussion on March 26th in Wilmington, designed for credit card issuers and financial services providers in the area. This intimate networking event offers a unique opportunity to connect with industry peers, exchange insights, and explore innovative strategies to navigate today’s evolving risk landscape.

Amid shifting market conditions—including decreasing mortgage rates and the challenge of managing high-interest receivables—card issuers must continuously refine their approach to fraud prevention, portfolio management, and collections. But it’s not always easy to do – in our recent survey of nearly 200 key financial services decision makers, nearly 60% of respondents said it was difficult to deploy and maintain their risk decisioning models and over half said being able to easily integrate data sources into decisioning processes is their biggest data challenge.

In a short presentation followed by an interactive discussion, Provenir will highlight how advanced analytics, data orchestration, and AI-driven decisioning can empower issuers to:

  • Enhance fraud detection and prevention through better data integration and real-time decisioning (nearly 50% of our respondents said that managing credit risk and detecting/preventing fraud are their biggest challenges)
  • Optimize portfolio management by balancing performance ratios and mitigating balance attrition
  • Get ahead of delinquencies with predictive insights and proactive risk strategies

Whether you’re looking to strengthen fraud defenses, improve customer lifecycle management, or maximize portfolio profitability, this discussion will offer actionable takeaways to help future-proof your credit card business and provide key guidance on how to deploy advanced analytics in your business.

Enjoy curated cocktails, thought-provoking conversation, and an evening of valuable industry connections. Space is limited—reserve your spot today!

Register your interest here

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New Global Survey Shows Nearly Half of Financial Services Executives Struggling to Manage Credit Risk and Detect and Prevent Fraud

AI is playing a prominent role in the revamp of credit risk decisioning
and fraud prevention strategies in 2025

Parsippany, NJ – February 12, 2025 – A new survey shows nearly half of all financial services executives are struggling with managing credit risk and detecting and preventing fraud. The survey also shows many are revamping their credit risk decisioning and fraud prevention strategies in 2025, with AI playing a prominent role.

These are among the key findings from the survey of nearly 200 key decision makers at financial services providers globally to understand their risk decisioning and fraud challenges across the customer lifecycle, decisioning investment priorities, and AI opportunities. The survey was conducted by Provenir, a global leader in AI Decisioning solutions.

Over half of all respondents plan to invest in risk decisioning solutions and AI/embedded intelligence in 2025 and beyond. At present, nearly 60% of respondents say they find it difficult to deploy and maintain risk decisioning models. 55% of executives recognize the value of AI to make streamlined strategy decisions, and in its ability to provide AI-powered performance improvement recommendations, and 53% see the value in the ability to automatically tune models to make better, more accurate decisions.

Key priorities for customer and account management are real-time, event-driven decisioning (65%), eliminating friction across the customer lifecycle (44%), and increasing customer lifetime value (44%).

Over half of respondents agree the biggest data challenge they face is being able to easily integrate data sources into decisioning processes.

Survey insights also reveal the pitfalls of operating multiple decisioning systems across the customer lifecycle. 59% of respondents say this is causing a lack of seamless data flow and unified insights, while 52% say it creates operational inefficiencies. Additionally, 28% said it contributes to an inconsistent customer experience.

When asked about data and fraud, 37% say they struggle with effective data orchestration for application fraud prevention, specifically in not being able to easily ingest and integrate new data sources, while 36% are challenged in using AI and machine learning for fraud prevention. Nearly one-third of respondents agree that the most important aspect for comprehensive fraud strategies is the ability to break down data silos between fraud and credit risk teams.

“Financial institutions are keenly aware of today’s increasingly complex threat landscape and must adopt new approaches for improved risk decisioning and fraud prevention across the customer lifecycle while providing frictionless and personalized customer experiences,” said Carol Hamilton, Chief Product Officer, Provenir. “With an AI decisioning platform more closely aligning credit and fraud risk teams, financial services executives can ensure holistic, end-to-end decisioning with a complete view of customers across the entire lifecycle.”

The survey was conducted November-December 2024; respondents were based in North America, EMEA, Latin America and Asia Pacific, holding the titles of manager, director, vice president, or above.

The full report of the survey findings can be found here.

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Survey: 2025 Global Risk Decisioning Survey

Survey: 2025 Global Risk Decisioning Survey

What are the key challenges and priorities for financial services providers in 2025 and beyond?
Provenir surveyed nearly 200 key decision makers at financial services providers globally, including Chief Risk Officers, CEOs, VPs, Senior Directors, Managing Directors, Decision Scientists, Heads of Risk, IT, Fraud and more.

The results highlight:

  • Their risk decisioning and fraud challenges across the customer lifecycle
  • Decisioning investment priorities
  • AI opportunities
Get the insights now.
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Shaping the Future of Decisioning: How These Leading Financial Services Providers are Making Bold Moves to Win Big with AI

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) has changed the entire world, in both big and small ways. Financial services is now increasingly looking to AI when it comes to risk decisioning – everything from whether to approve a loan application or increase a credit limit to fundamental decisions on whether a ‘customer’ is a fraud or not. Whether you are looking to streamline credit evaluations or improve customer experiences, the results are clear – big wins happen when organizations are ready to make bold moves in their adoption of AI. Harnessing the power of AI allows you to achieve measurable gains in efficiency, accuracy, and agility – and shape the future of decisioning. We’re looking at ten financial services providers around the globe who are leveraging AI to transform their operations, mitigate risks, and deliver exceptional value to their customers.

commbank

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

An Australian multinational bank, CBA is one of the leading banks in the region, serving more than 17 million customers. With a recent mammoth investment in advanced tech (the bank spends about $1 billion per year on growth-focused technology), CBA has integrated AI across various operations including fraud detection and customer service. They are using it to resolve 15,000 payment disputes lodged by customers every day (reducing call center waits by 40%), and in some cases have reduced the time it takes to approve small business loans to under ten minutes thanks to AI.

jpmorganchase

JPMorganChase

Serving millions of customers in over 100 global markets for more than 200 years, JPMorganChase has long been on the cutting-edge of using tech in its business. Now, the company is using an advanced AI system to automate key aspects of the loan approval process, using machine learning to analyze various data points to enhance the speed and accuracy of credit assessments. Overall, the company is focused on using AI for a variety of efficiencies across the business, with chief executive Jamie Dimon claiming AI tech could cut the working week to only 3 ½ days.

bank of america

Bank of America

One of the world’s leading financial institutions, Bank of America serves everyone from individuals and small businesses to massive corporations and governments with a full range of banking and investment products and services. Recently, it has invested over $3 billion in Generative AI capabilities to enhance operations, and its AI-powered fraud detection system has been able to reduce credit card fraud losses by 45% (which translated to an estimated $500 million saved in 2024 alone).

bmo

BMO

As part of Canada’s tightly controlled banking landscape, BMO is one of the country’s top financial institutions (and the 8th largest bank in North America by assets), offering 13 million customers a variety of products and services. BMO has been utilizing AI to improve report creation times and operational efficiency, recognizing streamlined processes with improvement to revenue and significant cost savings. The use of AI has been able to reduce manual effort on BMO’s equities team from more than four hours a day to less than one, freeing up time for more strategic tasks.

Schroders Capital

Schroders Capital

UK-based Schroders Capital is the private markets investment division of Schroders, with $97 billion in assets under management across private equity, private debt, and more. In 2024 they announced the launch of their Generative AI Investment Analyst (GAiiA) platform, aimed at improving accuracy and speeding up analysis of large volumes of data, and allowing their investment specialists to focus more strategically on delivering value to clients.

capital one

Capital One

Known for revolutionizing the credit card industry with data and tech, Capital One is one of the most recognized banking brands, serving over 100 million customers in a variety of locations. And now, they are also leading in AI adoption among large banks in the Americas and Europe. Their significant investments in AI help them understand customers’ needs and have greatly enhanced their decision-making processes. They are also using AI for real-time fraud prevention and detection, using advanced algorithms to handle evolving fraud threats and reduce false positives.

itau

Itaú Unibanco

As the largest bank in Brazil, Itau Unibanco has been at the forefront of digital transformation in the region, investing heavily in AI to enhance customer service and operational efficiency. In using AI, they have been able to personalize customer interactions, improve credit scoring, and enhance fraud detection and prevention, resulting in robust financial performance and their continued market dominance.

Santander

Santander Bank

One of the largest financial institutions globally, Santander Group features over 170 million customers in Europe and the Americas, 3.5 million shareholders, and over 200,000 employees. Faced with the threat of rising loan defaults, Santander has adopted a more proactive approach with the use of AI-powered predictive analytics. Using AI models that digest a combination of historical data and real-time account monitoring, they are able to identify and intervene earlier, offer tailored advice to customers, and optimize their resource allocation for improved efficiency.

dbs

DBS Bank

Based in Singapore, DBS Bank is a multinational organization, and one of the largest banks in Asia, with over 40,000 employees in 19 markets. Widely recognized for their digital transformation efforts, DBS Bank is using AI for credit risk assessment, personalized marketing, and enhanced customer service experiences through the use of AI-powered virtual assistants. With their AI-driven strategies, they have improved customer satisfaction and increased operational efficiency, contributing to their reputation as a market leader.

cimb

CIMB

Malaysia-headquartered CIMB is actively incorporating AI into its banking services, using advanced analytics and machine learning models for credit scoring, fraud detection, and chatbots for enhanced customer engagement. Thanks to AI, CIMB (the fifth largest banking group in ASEAN with over 26 million customers, and a world leader in Islamic finance) has been able to make more accurate credit assessments and improve fraud detection rates across a variety of business lines.

Whether you are looking for faster, more accurate credit assessment, the ability to better keep up with evolving fraud threats, or the capability to offer more personalized, tailored experiences for your customers, AI is what is going to get you there. The organizations highlighted here are just some of the companies leading the way, demonstrating how leveraging AI decisioning is a necessity for future-proofing your growth. With Provenir’s AI Decisioning Platform, financial services providers can leverage advanced analytics, machine learning, and real-time insights to make faster, more accurate decisions across the entire customer lifecycle. It can be daunting to think about implementing AI, but there are immediate steps you can take now to start taking advantage of the opportunities AI offers.

Ready to shape the future of decisioning with AI?

Contact Us

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