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The Revenue Hiding in Your Customer Base

The Revenue Hiding in Your Customer Base

The Revenue Hiding in Your Customer Base

(And Why AI Is the Way to Find It)

Most financial institutions are chasing growth in the wrong place. 

New market expansion. Unbanked populations. Fintech partnerships. Meanwhile, the biggest revenue opportunity sits right in front of them: the customers they already have. 

Here’s what the data tells us: between 40-70% of your future growth will come from existing customer relationships. Credit line increases, product cross-sells, and retention improvements. That’s not a prediction—it’s already happening. The only question is whether you’ll capture that value or watch competitors take it. 

The Provenir team has spent years working with financial institutions across 60+ countries, and I’ve watched this pattern repeat: organizations sitting on massive untapped revenue because their customer management infrastructure can’t move fast enough to capture it. 

The Timing Problem Nobody Talks About

Traditional customer management doesn’t fail only because of bad strategy or lack of data; it often fails because of timing. 

You identify a customer showing signs of financial stress. Excellent—your risk team caught it. Now you need to pull their complete profile, analyze their situation, decide on an intervention strategy, route it through approvals, and execute. By the time you finish this process, they’ve already missed two payments and you’re in recovery mode instead of prevention mode. 

Or consider the opposite scenario. You have a high-value customer ready for a credit increase. But your system requires days or weeks to process the request. Meanwhile, a competitor with faster decisioning approves them instantly. You just lost share of wallet to an organization that simply moved faster. 

This pattern plays out millions of times across your portfolio. Opportunities expire before you can act on them. Risks materialize before you can prevent them. Customers defect to faster, smarter competitors. 

The institutions pulling ahead have figured out something fundamental: customer management is a speed game now, and human-powered processes can’t compete. 

What AI Actually Changes 

AI transforms customer management in ways that matter to the bottom line.

Traditional risk management discovers problems after they occur. A customer misses a payment, triggering your collections process. Recovery is expensive and success rates are low.

AI changes the timeline entirely. Machine learning models analyze behavioral patterns to identify deterioration 90+ days before the first missed payment. Changes in transaction frequency, payment timing, balance utilization, external credit activity—these combine to signal approaching financial stress while intervention is still profitable and relationship-preserving. 

  • From segmentation to personalization

    Most approaches group customers by shared characteristics and apply uniform strategies. AI enables true individual-level personalization. 

    For each customer at each moment, AI evaluates thousands of possible actions. Credit line adjustments, product offers, engagement timing, channel selection, message content. The platform identifies the specific action most likely to generate desired outcomes for that individual right now. 

    This goes beyond just better segmentation. It’s about treating millions of customers as individuals. AI identifies and engages customers at optimal moments with propositions matched to their specific needs and propensity. 

  • From periodic to continuous

    Customer management traditionally operates in batch cycles. Monthly risk reviews. Quarterly campaign planning. Annual strategy refreshes. Customer behavior changes daily but your response happens monthly at best. 

    AI monitors portfolio health continuously. Risk scores update in real-time as new information arrives. The platform identifies emerging threats immediately rather than waiting for scheduled reviews. Strategies evolve automatically based on what’s actually working rather than waiting for manual analysis. 

    While competitors plan their next quarterly campaign, you’ve already learned from thousands of interactions and refined your approach accordingly. The advantages compound.

    Traditional strategy development relies on intuition validated through slow deployment cycles. You make your best guess, launch broadly, and wait months to understand results.

    AI allows scenario simulation before launch. Test different credit policies, model various campaign approaches, understand tradeoffs between risk and revenue. Make confident decisions backed by data rather than assumptions. 

The Infrastructure Reality

Here’s what nobody tells you about AI-powered customer management: the technology infrastructure requirements are real, and cutting corners kills implementations. 

Effective customer management requires integrating multiple internal systems alongside relevant external data sources. Internal systems including core banking, transaction processing, CRM, and product platforms. External sources including credit bureaus, fraud databases, and alternative data providers. All of this consolidating into unified customer profiles that update continuously. 

You need embedded machine learning with pre-trained models for common use cases and support for custom model development. Critically, you need to manage the complete model lifecycle: training, validation, deployment, monitoring, and retraining. Regulatory requirements and risk management standards demand transparency. 

In addition to decisioning and data orchestration/integration, leading platforms provide full visibility and control. This includes real-time dashboards with actionable KPIs, allowing teams to monitor portfolio performance and strategy effectiveness continuously. Just as importantly, simulation capabilities enable organizations to test different scenarios before deployment, ensuring decisions are optimized for both risk and revenue outcomes. 

And you need low-code configuration so business teams can refine strategies without waiting for IT resources. Launch new strategies in days rather than months. Test variations through A/B experiments. Deploy winners across the portfolio. 

Organizations sometimes consider building this themselves. The business case rarely justifies it. These platforms represent years of development by specialized teams. Custom systems require continuous enhancement as regulations change, new data sources emerge, and internal systems evolve. Maintenance costs typically exceed initial development investment. 

Platform implementations deliver value in months with accumulated best practices from hundreds of deployments. Internal development projects take years and often fail to achieve full functionality. 

What Success Actually Looks Like

MTN Group increased pre-approvals by 130% while simultaneously reducing defaults. They implemented AI that continuously monitors every customer, predicts risk before problems emerge, and personalizes credit decisions at the individual level. 

These aren’t outliers. Organizations implementing AI-powered customer management consistently achieve 5-10x ROI within 12-18 months through combined benefits across revenue protection, expansion, and efficiency. 

The pattern is clear: early warning systems prevent defaults more effectively than collections recover them. Individual-level personalization outperforms segment-based campaigns. Continuous optimization beats periodic reviews. Automated decisioning scales beyond human capacity. 

The Competitive Clock Is Running 

Fintech competitors built AI-powered decisioning from inception. Revolut, Klarna, Robinhood—they approve applications in seconds, personalize offers at individual level, and optimize continuously. Traditional institutions must match these capabilities to remain competitive.

The gap widens while deliberation continues. Organizations implementing AI see measurable advantages immediately. Faster decisioning captures customers competitors lose to slow approval processes. Better personalization increases share of wallet. Proactive risk management improves portfolio quality.

Your biggest revenue opportunity isn’t in new markets. It’s in the customer relationships you already have. Between 40-70% of future growth sits right there in your existing portfolio.

The playbook exists. The technology exists. The results are proven.

The only question left is timing—and whether you’ll capture that value before someone else does.

miguel

Miguel Maldonado

Written By


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1datapipe

1datapipe

PARTNER

1datapipe

Deterministic Identity Intelligence for Emerging Markets

Key Benefits

  • Deterministic Identity Resolution at Scale. Resolve fragmented identity data into persistent, verified entities using a deterministic identity graph—ensuring consistency across sources, systems, and time with explainable linkage and full data lineage.
  • Explainable Identity Signals for Risk Decisions. Deliver confidence signals, linkage indicators, and identity integrity flags with transparent reason codes—enabling identity resolution and enrichment for onboarding, verification, and fraud prevention without relying on opaque scoring models.

The Infrastructure for Trusted Identity

1datapipe® provides identity intelligence infrastructure built on one of the largest deterministic identity graphs across emerging markets. Living Identity® resolves fragmented data into persistent, verified identity entities—maintained over time with full provenance, auditability, and explainability.

Unlike traditional data providers, 1datapipe® focuses on identity persistence, not point-in-time matching. Our platform delivers decision-grade identity resolution and explainable signals to support customer onboarding, advanced identity verification, and fraud prevention use cases.

With coverage across 24 markets and over 1.75+ billion verified profiles, 1datapipe® enables organizations to confidently verify, understand, and trust identities in regions where data fragmentation and inconsistency are highest.

About 1datapipe Services

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    Living Identity® (Identity Intelligence Platform): Deterministic Identity Resolution and Enrichment

  • Countries Supported

    • LATAM
    • SEA
    • MENA
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What It Really Takes to Build AI Decisioning Platforms Banks Can Trust

What It Really Takes to Build AI Decisioning Platforms Banks Can Trust

Building a Decision Intelligence platform for financial services sounds straightforward until you’re actually doing it. Provenir CPO David Mirfield joined Helen Yu on CxO Spice (Episode 133) to get into the specifics: the architectural decisions, the roadmap trade-offs, and the hard-won lessons from two decades of working with banks, fintechs, and everyone in between.

Here are the key insights from their conversation.

One platform, built for the full lifecycle

Financial services organizations have spent years assembling point solutions for credit risk, fraud, onboarding, and customer management. The result is fragmented data, duplicated logic, and decisions made in silos that don’t reflect how risk actually moves across the customer journey.

David’s take on why that’s such a persistent problem:

David-Mirfield-CC

– David Mirfield | CPO, Provenir

“Everyone needs to have that trust that the business they’re partnering with can solve the problem. The marketing team is drawn to a marketing solution. The technology team is drawn to a technology solution. They need that subject matter expertise.”

That’s the real challenge of building a unified platform: it’s organizational as much as it’s technical. Customers can run separate teams on one platform for legitimate regulatory or logistic reasons and still get the benefit of shared data and shared logic.

And that logic overlaps more than most people realize. Credit and fraud share roughly 90% of the same data and strategic considerations. Building separate capabilities for each means solving the same problem twice and introducing blind spots at the seams.

The platform also serves many different users simultaneously:

  • The senior credit risk manager setting strategy
  • The deeply technical analyst deploying code and managing workflows
  • The data scientist running R and Python models
  • The business user who needs to adjust a decision flow without writing a line of code

Provenir’s approach is to maintain genuine technical depth while progressively building toward low-code and no-code interfaces, working up from a strong foundation rather than stripping the platform down.

Use case agnostic, model agnostic

This was one of the most quotable moments in the conversation, and Helen said she was stealing it:

David-Mirfield-CC

– Helen Yu | CEO, Tigon Advisory Corp

“It sounds strange to say as a niche platform, but you have to be use case agnostic.”

Provenir hasn’t built a dedicated fraud product or a dedicated credit product. It’s built an engine flexible enough to serve both, and everything in between, without constraining how customers configure it. The platform’s breadth is a feature, not a lack of focus.

The same thinking applies to AI. The pace at which foundation model providers are moving makes it strategically unwise to commit to any single LLM or agentic framework.

“I don’t think anyone would pretend to be able to keep up with the aggressive pace that Anthropic, OpenAI, and all of the others are moving at. They don’t seem to have a clear moat — people are switching from one to another as soon as the best version is available.”

Provenir’s response is to be the orchestration layer, not the AI itself. That means staying agnostic across LLMs, agentic capabilities, and frameworks, and adding support natively as they mature. The most recent example: MCP support, already integrated into the platform.

In regulated markets, there’s an additional reason to stay independent from any specific AI provider. Explainability and transparency aren’t optional. Being able to show a regulator exactly why a decision was made, and how the data supported it, matters as much as the decision itself.

Data orchestration is the moat

If there’s one area where Provenir has built a durable competitive advantage, David pointed squarely at data. And he made the point with some feeling:

“I remember working in other organizations — it took ten weeks to do some data integrations. It’s not because people aren’t technically capable. It’s because it needs an established, clean way of doing it.”

Provenir built that clean way of doing it long before David joined the business, and the flexible adapter infrastructure that came from it remains one of its clearest differentiators. The 225+ pre-integrated data sources in the marketplace are part of the story. The more important capability is that customers can build their own integrations directly within the platform, to internal databases, RESTful APIs, LLMs, and agentic services, through a low-code UI, without needing an engineering sprint.

The product decision David flagged as one of the hardest: choosing to stop building new marketplace integrations at scale, because there are higher-priority areas on the roadmap. Knowing when to stop adding and start deepening is genuinely hard, and it doesn’t happen without a clear point of view on what the platform is for.

Real time and batch aren’t in conflict

Most institutions know that real-time decisioning is where they’re headed. Most are still running monthly or weekly batch processes because that’s what their core systems support. Provenir’s position is to bridge that transition rather than force it.

The same decisioning engine handles batch and real-time processing, with a single UI and a single configuration layer. A customer can go live on batch and switch to real time when they’re ready, without rebuilding anything. David illustrated why that matters in practice:

“Imagine you’ve got 10 data calls, and each one takes a second. Running them in series, that’s 10 seconds. Because we’re a mature platform, you can parallelize those processes and make all those data calls at the same time. So you’re making 10 data calls, but they’re all coming back within one second.”

For use cases that don’t require external data calls at all, the engine handles 10,000 transactions per second at enterprise scale. The underlying principle across all of it: improvements to the core engine benefit every use case built on top of it, simultaneously.

Where investment is going

Two areas are getting the most product development attention through H1 and into H2 this year.

The first is Decision Intelligence. Provenir recently launched a simulation module that lets users compare production data against historical performance before making a change. Coming next are proactive recommendations, where the platform surfaces areas within a customer’s decisioning flow that could be improved, using data and models the customer already has.

“Not just having an end user make a change and ask ‘what was the output?’ — but proactively saying, ‘There are three or four areas within your decisioning flow where you’ve already got the data to improve that decision.'”

That moves the platform from answering questions to generating insight before anyone thinks to ask. Agentic interfaces make those recommendations easy to explore interactively; automated machine learning provides the statistical rigour underneath.

The second area is continued enterprise depth: regulatory controls, security, data protection, and the governance infrastructure that large tier-one banks require before trusting a platform with their most sensitive decisioning workflows. The goal, as David put it, is to be the safe pair of hands that is also the most innovative engine in the room.

Watch the full episode on YouTube or find it on Helen’s LinkedIn newsletter, CxO Spice with Helen Yu.

Amy

Amy Sariego

Written By

Senior Content Manager, Provenir

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WEBINAR Fraud

What if you could spot first-party fraud before it became a loss event?

On-Demand Webinar
What if you could spot first-party fraud before it became a loss event?

First-party fraud has rapidly evolved from isolated organised crime into a social trend amplified by technology and social media.

Today’s fraud landscape in the Nordics reflects three distinct behavioural personas: Criminal Operators, Opportunists, and Intentional Misrepresentation. Each represents unique behavioural signatures, risk patterns, and detection challenges.

Provenir’s Mike Holmes and Jason Abbott join Ola Sundell of Digital Banking Strategy Talk to unpack each persona with real-world context, behavioural risk indicators, and practical, AI-enabled detection frameworks that help organisations detect, adapt, and respond – all while maintaining customer experience and compliance.

What to expect

  • Three very different first-party fraud personas and the behaviours that define them
  • Early indicators that surface first-party fraud before losses materialise
  • AI-enabled detection using profiling, enrichment, and graph analytics
  • How to calibrate friction to reduce fraud without harming customer experience


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When Did You Last Review Your Third-Party Data Providers?

When Did You Last Review
Your Third-Party Data Providers?

Third-party data sits at the heart of financial services decisioning. Institutions rely on it to manage fraud, verify identity, meet compliance obligations, and price risk accurately. Yet despite its strategic importance, many organisations treat their data providers as fixed infrastructure, reviewed on contract renewal cycles rather than against current performance. 

That gap has consequences. Fraud patterns change continuously. Regulatory requirements evolve. Consumer behaviour shifts. And the data ecosystem itself keeps expanding, with new providers, richer signals, and alternative datasets entering the market. An unrevisited data stack is almost certainly leaving performance on the table. 

The Hidden Cost of Standing Still

Without regular review, data portfolios tend to accumulate inefficiency. Overlapping providers go unchallenged. Newer, higher-performing signals go untested. Models optimised for last year’s risk environment carry on running. Customer friction creeps up as legacy integrations slow decisioning down. 

A periodic review is a performance lever, and often a significant one. 

How to Review Existing Providers

A meaningful review goes beyond commercial renegotiation. It starts with measurable value and decision impact. 

Start by asking whether the data is still predictive. Look at how each dataset contributes to outcomes: fraud detection uplift, approval rates, false positive reduction, customer journey friction. If a dataset isn’t materially improving decisioning, it warrants a challenge. 

Then look for duplication. It’s common to see multiple providers offering similar signals — identity verification, device intelligence, email risk. Mapping providers against capability areas (identity, fraud signals, credit risk, AML/KYC) makes the overlap visible and the rationalisation case clear. 

Finally, assess whether integrations are still fit for purpose. Legacy connections can become bottlenecks in API performance, orchestration flexibility, and the ability to test new configurations quickly. Modern decisioning requires agility. Integrations that constrain iteration are a liability. 

This is where Provenir’s Data Marketplace changes the calculus. With 225+ pre-integrated global data sources across credit, fraud, identity, and compliance, connected via a single API, teams can consolidate, swap, or extend their data stack without the integration overhead that typically makes these decisions slow and expensive. 

How to Evaluate New Data Partners

Exploring new providers shouldn’t be resource-heavy. The most effective organisations treat it as an ongoing test-and-learn process rather than a formal procurement exercise. 

The starting point is always the use case: what problem are you solving? Reducing first-party fraud, improving thin-file approvals, strengthening identity confidence, enhancing AML screening — a clear use case sharpens evaluation criteria and prevents capability drift. 

From there, the best way to assess a new provider is through real data and measurable outcomes. Run parallel testing alongside existing providers where possible. Use historical and live traffic. Measure incremental uplift, not just standalone performance. And track both risk and customer experience metrics. A provider that reduces fraud while increasing friction may not represent a net gain. 

Look beyond the data itself, too. The strongest partners bring transparency in how signals are generated, consistent coverage across your key markets, and a clear roadmap for how their signals will evolve. 

Provenir Marketplace is built around this test-and-learn model. Pre-built integrations mean new providers can be connected and running in your decisioning workflows in days, with sandbox simulation available before any change goes live. 

How to Know Whether You’re Collecting the Right Data

More data isn’t the goal. The right data, aligned to specific decision points, is. 

Every dataset should serve a clear purpose in your decisioning workflow: onboarding, authentication, fraud prevention, customer management, collections. If you can’t map a data source to a decision outcome, it’s worth questioning whether it belongs in the stack. 

Marginal value analysis makes this concrete. What happens if you remove a dataset? What uplift does it deliver against alternatives? This kind of scrutiny helps prioritise spend and reduce noise. 

The right data also balances risk and experience. Better data should enable smarter decisions: higher approval rates, lower drop-off, faster time to decision, without simply adding weight to the process. 

And the right mix changes over time. Fraud patterns shift. New sources emerge. Business strategy evolves. Leading organisations treat their data ecosystem as a living system, revisiting it continuously rather than managing it on a fixed cycle. 

Building a Smarter Data Strategy

The question isn’t whether your current data providers are good enough in isolation. It’s whether they represent the best available fit for your current risk landscape, your customer experience goals, and your decisioning strategy. 

For most organisations, an honest review surfaces both savings and performance improvements. The barrier has historically been the integration overhead required to make changes, which is exactly the problem Provenir’s Data Marketplace is designed to solve. 

Matthew Nutt

Matthew Nutt

Written By

Senior Product Manager, Provenir

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Transaction to Relationship: Rethinking the Auto Finance Lifecycle

From Transaction to Relationship:
Rethinking the Auto Finance Lifecycle

Auto lending has always been good at the moment of origination. Lenders have spent decades optimizing the credit decision: faster approvals, tighter risk controls, better fraud detection at the point of application. That work matters, and it shows. But most lenders treat the funded loan as the finish line, when it’s actually the starting point of a customer relationship that can span five, six, or seven years.

The data that accumulates across that relationship: payment patterns, behavioral signals, refinance readiness, and early signs of financial stress, is largely going unused. And in a market where auto loan delinquencies have reached a 15-year high, with the Federal Reserve reporting that the rate of balances at least 30 days past due hit 3.88% in Q3 2025, the cost of that inaction is becoming hard to ignore.

The lenders building durable competitive advantage are the ones building the infrastructure to act on customer intelligence across the entire lifecycle.

The data is there. The action isn’t.

Auto portfolios generate a continuous stream of behavioral signals from the moment a loan is funded. Payment timing, frequency of contact, refinance inquiries, changes in vehicle value relative to outstanding balance — each of these tells a story about where a borrower is headed. Taken together, they can indicate risk trajectory, signal an opportunity for a proactive offer, or flag a customer who needs early intervention before they fall behind.

Most lenders collect this data. Very few use it systematically. The gap between what an auto lender knows about its customers and what it does with that knowledge is one of the most underutilized assets in the business.

The consequences are visible in the numbers. TransUnion projects auto loan delinquencies will reach 1.54% (60+ days past due) by year-end 2026, marking five consecutive years of growth. That persistent pressure isn’t just a macroeconomic story. It reflects, in part, a structural problem in how most lenders manage their portfolios: reactively, and with incomplete information.

Pre-delinquency intervention — reaching a borrower at the first signs of financial stress, before a payment is missed — is one of the highest-leverage moves a lender can make. It preserves the customer relationship, reduces loss severity, and typically costs far less than collections activity after the fact. But it requires acting on signals in real time, not in batch processes run weekly or monthly after the damage is done.

traffic light

The infrastructure is the problem.

Understanding why most lenders aren’t doing this requires looking honestly at how their systems are structured. Origination, fraud, customer management, and collections have historically lived on separate platforms, often owned by separate teams, sometimes built over decades with different vendors and different data models.

Each system sees a slice of the customer. None of them sees the whole picture. When a payment behavior signal surfaces in one system, triggering a meaningful response requires coordinating across multiple tools: manual handoffs, data exports, and workflow processes that slow everything down and introduce the kind of latency that turns a manageable risk into a delinquency.

This fragmentation isn’t a technology shortcoming that can be patched. It’s an architectural problem. Forward-looking lenders are increasingly recognizing that staying competitive requires real-time credit decisioning and dynamic, automated routing based on borrower profile — capabilities that are structurally impossible when the systems feeding those decisions don’t share a common data layer.

The shift toward unified decisioning infrastructure — where origination, portfolio monitoring, customer management, and collections operate from the same customer intelligence — is not a future-state ambition. It’s happening now, driven by lenders who have recognized that fragmentation is a direct cost center.

What consumer fintech figured out.

The model worth studying isn’t theoretical. Consumer fintechs built their entire business logic around the full customer lifecycle, because they had no legacy infrastructure to protect. From day one, they designed their decisioning to be continuous: credit limit adjustments triggered by behavioral signals, proactive refinance offers timed to moments of financial readiness, pre-delinquency engagement that treats early warning signs as an opportunity rather than a problem.

The result is that lifecycle management became a revenue and risk function simultaneously. Proactive refinance offers reduce default risk by lowering monthly payments for borrowers showing early strain. Portfolio-level risk monitoring enables tighter capital allocation. Next-best-action recommendations increase product attachment and lifetime value.

Auto loan originations are recovering, with large lenders seeing substantial growth — Ally Financial grew originations 12.2% year-over-year in Q2 2025, while Wells Fargo reported an 86.5% jump to $6.9 billion. That volume creates opportunity — but it also creates portfolio risk that compounds when lenders lack the visibility to manage it dynamically.

Auto lenders have everything the fintechs had: the customer relationship, the payment data, the behavioral history. What many still lack is the decisioning infrastructure to act on it continuously, rather than episodically.

The shift from transaction to relationship.

Rethinking the auto finance lifecycle starts with a straightforward reframe: the credit decision at origination is one data point in an ongoing relationship, not the defining event. The borrowers who look good at origination can deteriorate. The borrowers who look marginal at origination can perform exceptionally well. What separates lenders who manage this well from those who don’t is the ability to keep learning — and to act on what they learn.

That requires decisioning systems built for continuous intelligence, not periodic review. It requires a unified view of the customer across the lifecycle, not siloed data that tells an incomplete story. And it requires the ability to respond to signals at the moment they surface, not after they’ve become a problem.

The funded loan is not the finish line. For lenders building sustainable, resilient auto finance businesses, it’s where the real work begins.

mike

Mike Shurley

Written By

VP, Product, Provenir

Latest Resources

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Webinar - Navigating Auto Lending

Navigating Auto Lending in 2026

On-Demand Webinar

Navigating Auto Lending in 2026: Speed, Agility, Visibility, at Your Fingertips

If you’re a technology or risk leader in the auto lending industry, your world can often feel like you’re living in a constant state of quickly shifting gears. Everything from markets, fraud risks, and customer expectations are constantly in motion.

Join us in this on-demand webinar to hear from industry expert, Christopher Mahanna, CISSP, for a practical and casual conversation on the reality of auto lending today. We’ll dig into where technology can provide a lift in operations and risk.

You’ll learn:
  • How to build a faster, smarter, more adaptive decisioning process
  • How to strengthen risk and fraud controls
  • How to future-proof operations with modular technology modernizations
We’re looking forward to sharing how you can supercharge your decisioning engine which will enable you to make fast (not furious) decisions.
Please Fill Out the Form to View the Video

Speakers
  • Christopher

    Christopher Mahannah

    Agora

    EVP & Head of Technology
  • sam

    Jeff Ward

    Provenir

    Senior Sales Executive
  • Jack

    Jack Darby

    Provenir

    Enterprise Solutions Consultant

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EBOOK KShape

One Portfolio, Two Economies

One Portfolio, Two Economies: Model Drift, Consumer Divergence, and the Case for Decision Intelligence

How Financial Institutions Can Stay Agile, Precise, and Profitable in the 2026 K-Shaped Economy

Executive Summary 
  • Model drift is no longer a theoretical risk. In a K-shaped economy, the assumptions baked into your AI and ML models are often eroding in real time, often invisibly. 
  • The speed-to-change gap is getting wider. Institutions that can detect a shift and act on it in days rather than months have a competitive advantage 
  • Advanced decisioning orchestration — the ability to connect data, models, and strategy across your existing environment without rip-and-replace — is the defining infrastructure decision of this cycle 
Introduction

The economic ground is shifting beneath financial institutions in ways that defy conventional risk models. Interest rate trajectories remain unpredictable. Consumer vulnerability is rising. And perhaps most challenging of all, the divergence in financial outcomes across customer segments has created a market where a single strategy can no longer serve a diverse portfolio.

This is the reality of the K-shaped economy, and it demands a fundamentally different approach to risk management and decisioning.

This paper explores the dynamics shaping the 2026 financial services landscape, the unique pressures they create for institutions of every size, and how Decision Intelligence platforms give forward-thinking organizations the speed, precision, and adaptability to turn volatility into competitive advantage.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

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Buy the Engine. Build the Advantage

Buy the Engine. Build the Advantage.

  • Blog

  • Industry

  • Date

Buy the Engine.
Build the Advantage.

christian-ball

Christian Ball

Enterprise Account Executive

Why the smartest capital allocation decision in financial services risk infrastructure isn’t build vs. buy, it’s knowing what’s actually worth building. 

The competitive environment in financial services has fundamentally changed. Margins are compressed. Regulatory complexity is accelerating. Customer acquisition costs are at historic highs. And the fintechs gaining ground aren’t necessarily the ones with the most sophisticated technology, they’re the ones deploying it fastest. 

That context matters when you’re evaluating whether to build proprietary risk decisioning infrastructure from scratch. 

The Real Cost of Building

The true cost of building a decisioning platform compounds over time. 

The upfront capex is significant: architecture design, engineering resources, data integration across bureau and alternative data providers, security infrastructure, compliance frameworks. Organisations that have gone through this report 18 to 36 months before a production-ready system is operational. In a market where a competitor can launch a new credit product in weeks, that gap carries direct revenue implications. 

The ongoing opex picture is frequently underestimated at approval stage. Maintaining data integrations as providers update APIs. Rebuilding model deployment pipelines as cloud infrastructure evolves. Keeping pace with regulatory change across markets. Resourcing the support function so the decisioning engine doesn’t become a bottleneck to every product iteration. These aren’t exceptional costs. They’re structural, recurring, and they scale with complexity. 

McKinsey research consistently shows that large-scale internal technology builds in financial services exceed budget in many cases, with five-year total cost of ownership frequently running 40–60% above initial projections. The resource drag on engineering teams is harder to quantify but equally real. Senior talent allocated to infrastructure maintenance is senior talent not working on competitive differentiation. 

Speed is Now a Strategic Variable

Digital-native lenders are entering established segments with lower cost bases and faster decisioning cycles. Embedded finance is putting credit products inside customer journeys that traditional institutions don’t own. Open banking and alternative data are changing what good underwriting looks like. Regulators are demanding more explainability and auditability. 

The organisations gaining ground can test, launch, and iterate on new products in weeks, not quarters. That agility is very difficult to sustain when the decisioning infrastructure itself requires lengthy development cycles every time the business wants to change something. 

What Provenir Changes in the Capital Equation

Provenir’s Decision Intelligence Platform is built for exactly this trade-off. The infrastructure is already built, maintained, and continuously updated: cloud-native deployment, a marketplace of integrated data providers, model management, compliance and auditability frameworks. What organisations configure on top of it is entirely their own. 

Rather than funding a multi-year infrastructure build, capital goes into configuration, integration, and the proprietary decisioning logic that actually differentiates the business. Time to production is measured in weeks, not years. 

The opex shift is equally significant. Data provider integrations, infrastructure scaling, security patching, regulatory update cycles all move from internal cost centres to the platform’s responsibility. Engineering resource shifts from maintaining infrastructure to building product. The ongoing cost base is predictable, subscription-based, and scales with usage rather than requiring constant reinvestment just to stand still. 

BBVA, Atom Bank, and SoFi each deployed Provenir to run fundamentally different business models: global commercial lending, retail digital banking, consumer refinancing, at different scales and in different regulatory environments. The underlying platform is common. The decisioning logic, risk models, and customer strategies are not. 

The IP Question

The executive concern about IP is legitimate and worth addressing directly. Competitive advantage in financial services credit sits in the credit policy, the data strategy, the risk appetite calibration, and the customer relationships built on top of the engine. On Provenir’s platform, all of that remains entirely proprietary. Scoring models are deployed inside the platform, not exposed. Decision logic is configured by your team to reflect your underwriting philosophy. Two organisations on the same infrastructure share no more of their competitive advantage than two companies hosting on AWS share their code. 

What Provenir removes is the infrastructure layer: the part that costs the most, delivers the least competitive differentiation, and consumes the most ongoing resource to maintain. 

There’s also value that’s difficult to replicate internally. The R&D investment across Provenir’s global client base creates platform capabilities that no single organisation, building in isolation, could justify on its own. 

The Bottom Line

The build option carries significant upfront commitment, multi-year timelines, and a structural opex burden that compounds over time. In a market where speed and adaptability are increasingly decisive, it also means slower product iteration and delayed competitive response. 

Provenir reframes the question from build vs. buy to where you deploy your capital and your talent. The platform provides the infrastructure. Your team builds the advantage. Your IP, your models, your risk strategy are fully proprietary, executing faster and at materially lower total cost than the build alternative. 

That’s a strategic decision, not just a procurement one. 

LATEST BLOGS

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